There’s a deluge of new data and research to wade through in the mobile games business. This regular column breaks it all down into digestible chunks.
Read on for the numbers you need to know about minus the fluff.
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Mobile spending to hit $143bn by 2030
Data.ai has released its monster Mobile App Market Forecast 2030 report, in which the company predicts that consumer spending on apps will be higher than games by 2030.
The firm forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 11.1% for apps between 2024 and 2030, compared to just 4.2% for games. By 2030, Data.ai predicts games will bring in $143.1bn in consumer spending compared to $145bn from non-gaming apps.
The firm also forecasts that the RPG genre will continue to attract the most consumer spending. In 2023, the category brought in just under $25bn, but this is set to rise to $31.2bn in 2030, it says. The company also points to the match genre seeing a 16% increase in consumer spending in 2023, just slightly north of $10bn.
While RPGs are set to attract the most consumer spending, hypercasual is by far the most downloaded mobile genre. While it saw its first ever decline thanks to new privacy regulations, the sector is predicted to bring in $21bn in 2030, representing growth of 3.5%.
Looking at the number of hours spent playing individual genres, Data.ai says simulation games are by far the most popular, being played more than 100bn hours in 2023 and predicted to hit 117bn hours by 2030. Over the next seven years, the biggest loser appears to be shooting games; while these titles were played for over 90bn hours in 2020, this has dropped to just under 60bn for 2023 and will only rise by 2.5% to 66bn by 2030.
LastWar fires past $175m revenue, 30m downloads
After breaking into March’s top 10 grossing games (according to Appmagic), we’ve been tracking FirstFun’s mix of lane shooting and 4X strategy a bit closer. And again according to Appmagic, it has just passed $175m in lifetime IAP earnings, from just over 30m downloads.
Add in whatever this game is earning from ads and you’ve got one of the fastest-growing games in mobile – from earning under $1m in October 2023, to over $66m in March 2024, the lines are all pointing aggressively upwards.
Lifetime revenue by market shows the US on top, but only just with $52m. Close in second in South Korea on $48m, followed by Japan ($15.5m), Taiwan ($13.5m) and Hong Kong ($5.2m). By downloads the top markets are the US (5.4m), Brazil (2.4m), Japan (2.4m), South Korea (1.9m) and France (1.3m).
Hypercasual downloads dipped 5% in Q1
Appmagic reports that hypercasual game downloads dipped by 5% year-on-year in Q1 of 2024. During this period, installs hit 3.6bn, compared to the 3.8bn the sector managed in the first quarter of 2023. Top Western countries saw the biggest decline, dropping by 15%, while the top Eastern regions fell by 11%.
Quarter-to-quarter, there’s some positive news as downloads were 6% higher than in Q4 2023, however. This is being driven by top Eastern countries, which saw an 11% increase in installs to reach 113m downloads, while Western countries rose by 2% to hit 549m installs.
The data firm picked out Supercent’s ‘idle arcade’ category expertise with new Q1 contender Pizza Ready and Outlets Rush, while also noting ABI’s use of provocative ad creatives to boost Help Me: Tricky Story up the charts.
Left to Survive hits 70m downloads
Zombie base builder and shooter Left to Survive has shot past 70m installs since its 2018 release. Developer and publisher My.Games says that the title has brought in over $140 million in revenue, too. The title is available on iOS and Android, as well as Steam and My.Games’ own platform. It’s not clear how much that 70m total came from mobile downloads.
Global games market to hit $184bn in 2024
Data from Newzoo predicts that the overall games market is set to grow in 2024 for the first time in three years.
The company’s Games Market Trends To Watch in 2024 report says that the industry brought in $184bn in 2023 and will make $189.3bn this year. By 2026, Newzoo reckons revenue will be up to $205.7bn.
Newzoo also surveyed mobile developers about bringing their titles to PC, as UA becomes harder. Only 36% of ‘industry leaders’ agree that mobile studios will bring their wares to PC and console, while another 36% is on the fence – the remaining 27% disagrees. So a pretty unclear picture, all told.
One thing is certain though; industry leaders believe that changes in the privacy landscape are going to have an impact on mobile developers – 64% agreed with the sentiment.
