Multiple mobilegamer.biz sources have voiced their concern for Apple Arcade’s future, citing a glut of cancelled projects and ever-declining developer payouts.
One developer said there was the “the smell of death” around the service – though others suggested there are now whispers of (another) reboot for the service.
Payouts for titles on Apple Arcade have been falling for years, our sources said, and following a shift in strategy very few original games are being greenlit unless they are attached to a big family-friendly IP.
Apple is often aloof or difficult to work with too – though as one developer noted, “that’s nothing new”. While some described their relationship with Apple as very positive (and lucrative), others said that Apple is “famously vindictive” and “spiteful” in its dealings with developers – especially once the tech giant discovers that you have signed a deal with Netflix’s rival service.
It had all started out so well. At Apple Arcade’s launch in 2019, upfront payments were very generous, and so were the per-play payments thereafter, we’re told. Most, if not all, games released in Apple Arcade’s first few years were profitable from day one, our sources said, and the service was a lifeline for many studios making premium-style games.
Not all of our sources were critical of the service. “Despite its imperfections, we’re very very happy Arcade exists. It has made premium games viable on mobile,” said one contact. Another studio boss told us that their company would not exist without Apple’s support, though it is often unpredictable and demanding to work with.
Several developers we spoke to noted that payments from Apple Arcade’s per-play ‘bonus pool’ started to decline around October 2020, and have continued to do so since. Then, as part of a reboot in spring 2021, Apple “cancelled a shitload of projects and pissed off a lot of people,” according to one source.
The service is now laser-focused on family-friendly games with big IP attached, supplemented by one or two new ‘App Store Greats’ per month, which are repurposed free to play games with ads and IAPs removed.
Apple has not made that strategy shift very clear to its partners, however. One studio boss told us that after months of glowing feedback on one particular game, the Arcade team suddenly withdrew its interest in the title, citing a change in strategy. When the developer asked for feedback and offered to reduce the budget and re-tool the game to better fit Apple’s needs, the Arcade team simply stopped responding to their emails.
Other developers who have met Apple to discuss putting their games on Arcade came away confused as to the overall direction of the service. One said it had the “smell of death” around it. “I got the sense they didn’t really know where they were going with it all – almost like they weren’t sure if they’d have jobs at the end of it,” said one studio boss.
The upfront fees Apple was paying for new Arcade titles have also been cut, we’re told, and on top of the decline in per-play ‘bonus pool’ payments, some developers are concerned for the future of the service.
“We’re going to see that amount and decrease and decrease and decrease until it’s pennies,” said one developer. “At that point putting a game on Arcade starts to become much less viable.”
Developers are also unable to really question Apple on why payments are declining, because the company has been evasive around how its bonus pool payments are calculated.
“They have this opaque metric that they call a qualifying session, and bonus pool payments are made based on that,” said one source. “But no-one knows what a qualifying session actually is – it has something to do with if the game was launched, how long the player played for and how often they return. But it’s a black box, really.”
Existing App Store titles that are re-released as part of the ‘App Store Greats’ range of games are not paid for upfront, said one developer, and are only subject to bonus pool payments. This naturally benefits games with longer-term retention, but makes shorter narrative games and premium-style indie titles unlikely to earn a decent payback. This is why there’s been a slow purge of these types of games from the service over the last few years.
Developers struggling to get traction on the service also have to pitch Apple just to be featured on the Arcade tab, we’re told. “We have to basically beg for featuring from Apple,” said one developer. “Getting that banner featuring at the top is like squeezing blood from a stone.”
Getting marketing support from Apple is tough too. “As with all things Apple, it’s a six week lead time to get, you know, a single tweet or whatever,” our source added.
Apple may be about to turn it around, though. Another contact told us that Netflix’s entry into the games subscription space has caused Apple to consider another reboot for Arcade, having already re-positioned the service in April 2021.
Netflix pays most developers generously upfront to host titles on its service, but does not offer ongoing or bonus payments, we’re told. It is also broadly considered easier to work with, though our sources were aware that the streaming giant is spending big to establish itself right now – the money could dry up a little over time, they said, just as it did with Apple Arcade.
“I really hope Netflix continues doing what they’re doing because it is requiring Apple to continue to try to be relevant and competitive,” one source said. “Google also needs to come to the space with something compelling – Google Play Pass is actually pretty good for developers, but is marketed terribly.”
Arcade’s current malaise is ultimately down to the leadership at the company, another studio boss told us.
“At the very top of the company there needs to be a passion and respect for games, and there just isn’t,” they said. “It all depends on how much buy-in there is from those guys at the top, and I don’t think they really value Arcade or invest in it the same way you see them invest in music or TV.”
We have contacted Apple for comment on this report and will update this story if or when they respond.
