Scopely is spending extraordinary amounts of money on Monopoly Go UA.
According to UA expert Matej Lancaric, total spend to date could be as much as $1.5bn, and daily outlay can hit $4.5m depending on CPIs. The game is “not even close to profitability,” he says.
According to Scopely, Coin Master-inspired hit Monopoly Go passed $1bn in revenue and 100m installs last month. “If they made $1bn already then spend is definitely $1.5bn,” Lancaric told us. “They are not even close to profitability. It’s just not possible given the LTV/ROAS curve.”
Calculations based on estimated CPIs and the current rate of installs suggest that UA spend of $3.35m per day “is a low estimate,” says Lancaric. “It could go up to $4.5m per day based on the CPI.”
GameBiz Consulting’s head of user acquisition Ramiz Trtovac had some rather more conservative estimates for Scopely’s UA spend.
“They are spending around $300,000 per day,” he told us. “62% of the impressions go to the US and around 5% to T1 countries like Germany, Australia, Canada, UK, France…most impressions are served on media sources: YouTube, Facebook, Unity, Smadex, and Moloco. Top performing creatives are videos, usually, legacy ones added in March.”
“I don’t believe that $1m a day is a realistic spend – but maybe if the brand campaigns are also present,” adds Trtovac. “For UA profitability I agree that’s too aggressive but some publishers are looking at spending $12m a year to make $13m.”
An analysis of Scopely’s UA strategy by Liquid and Grit repeats the claim made on the Deconstructor of Fun podcast that Scopely is spending over $1m per day on UA. The blog also suggests that some of the game’s success is down to the large number of ad creatives out there.
“Among leading casual and casino apps, Monopoly Go is second only to fellow UA powerhouse Royal Match in the number of ad creatives shown,” says the Liquid & Grit blog.
“Monopoly Go’s ads come in three distinct flavours: ads that highlight the IP, ads that highlight the accumulation of wealth and upgrades, and ads that highlight social interactions. As a result of these multiple types of ad creatives, Monopoly Go can create a wide funnel that still targets specific players.”
The Liquid & Grit analysis also notes Scopely’s “unusually frequent” use of interactive ads.
“Although these kinds of interactive ads can be more expensive to develop than normal ads, they have the lowest CPI of any mobile game ad format. This low CPI makes them a surprisingly cost-effective choice, particularly for developers with the resources to develop them in-house, instead of relying on outsourcing.”
The blog goes on to suggest that Scopely’s localisation efforts and in particular its paid TikTok partnerships have also been instrumental to the game’s success.
“Monopoly Go has a larger share of young players than Coin Master, likely due in part to Monopoly Go’s success on TikTok. Players in the 18–34 age range make up roughly 17% of Monopoly Go’s audience, while that same demographic only makes up 11% of Coin Master’s.”
We’ve contacted Scopely for comment on this story and will update this article if it provides one.
UPDATE: Scopely has provided the following comment on the above story:
“As we shared before, we’re proud that Monopoly Go is currently one of the most profitable mobile games – any claim otherwise is inaccurate.
The Monopoly brand’s organic appeal combined with the highly social gameplay of Monopoly Go has attracted one of the most engaged mobile audiences in the world, with an unprecedented retention curve.
Our UA teams are some of the best and most sophisticated in the business, always spending strategically, continuously unlocking profitable channels and building very large audiences – but doing so in magnitudes of dollar spend well below what was cited by a third-party who isn’t familiar with our business.
We hope the industry doesn’t get discouraged by (wildly) speculative statements not rooted in fact. We firmly believe (and have proven) that smart, not unfettered, spending on products with exceptional player KPIs can build a very large and profitable game business shortly after a product’s launch.”
