What do mobilegamer.biz readers think 2024 will bring?
Here, we asked some of the best-known investors, analysts and consultants in the mobile games business to give us their predictions.
They explore the marketing landscape, AI, alternative app stores, hybridcasual, new launches, crossplatform play, what’s next for Netflix and more.
Eric Seufert, Heracles Capital and Mobile Dev Memo founder
I believe the advertising yield management (mediation) space will become more competitive in 2024, with publishers seeking better optimisation methods for their inventory given the challenging mobile gaming operating environment.
I wrote in 2022 that mediation was becoming the primary front in the mobile advertising wars post-ATT, and that is seemingly what played out with Unity’s merger with ironSource, AppLovin’s bid to disrupt that merger, and Unity’s introduction of its engine runtime fee.
Mediation platforms didn’t need to offer many dynamic optimization capabilities historically because their primary customer segment was hypercasual gaming. As that genre swiftly contracts and casual publishers seek better yield on their inventory, mediation platforms will need to compete on optimization offerings, which may allow upstarts to enter a space that has been ossified for the past several years in terms of offerings.
Phylicia Koh, Play Ventures partner
This might be optimistic but a more even playing field for alternative and competitive mobile game distribution will emerge by end of 2024. The ruling against Google Play is the first step, and I’d expect incumbents (Google Play and App Store) to do the usual dance of token concessions on fees, and selective interpretations of allowing other mobile app stores on Android and iOS devices, but those monopoly days are numbered.
I think some folks are being overly-bullish and optimistic on the fundraising climate. Interest rates won’t come down till the second half of the year at least (and won’t come down that much when it does), and the fact that there still isn’t a proven scalable playbook for new mobile content studios in this new age of mobile gaming means investors will still remain skittish in writing cheques.
Nikola Čavić, GameBiz Consulting CEO
From the publishing perspective, I expect 2024 to be the toughest year yet for mobile gaming. Diminishing organic traffic, rising CPIs, the financial squeeze, increased regulatory demands and overall escalating complexity of publishing operations will leave many studios, small and mid-sized in particular, facing existential challenges.
To survive and succeed in 2024, being nimble, working with shorter timelines and becoming proficient at leveraging latest tech will be essential. Studios that navigate the evolving landscape of tools and platforms efficiently will gain an edge by outsourcing an increasing share of content creation and decision making to AI and players.
Gorkem Turk, Laton Ventures founding partner
In 2024, I expect mobile gaming to surprise global community in a positive way. We will see the magic happening when the new high bar for creativity in game design and execution quality meet with the AI-driven efficiencies in user acquisition.
Nacho Monereo, Boost Capital Partners investor
I am a firm (hopefully not naive) believer that mobile games will return to positive growth sooner than later. This resurgence will be propelled by an expanding mobile gamer base, advancements in technology, growth in emerging markets, and the launch of new and improved content.
Now, onto the AI hype. Every developer I talk to, no exceptions, is looking for ways to implement AI technology across the entire cycle. Whether in ad creatives, testing new themes, generating game assets, balancing and creating new game levels, personalizing or creating new entire game mechanics, managing player communities and running customer support, bots, and so on and so forth.
I am sure that many of these tasks have been done in the past already using some form of AI but I believe that the recent ML/LLM progress and above all its adoption in the last year will shape how games are both built and marketed. Although it’s early to determine what will be the final use of this technology or where it will have more impact, I am sure some companies will emerge as winners from this shift.
The potential of hybridcasual games, offering nearly as low CPIs as hypercasual but higher LTVs due to an increased percentage of in-app purchases, has been present for a while. However, until recently, only a handful of developers managed to fully capitalize on it. Now, it appears that more developers, particularly those in the hypercasual space, are beginning to achieve success in various genres such as rogue arcade or tile blast games. I anticipate that some major successes next year will emerge from this new category.
In 2024, we foresee substantial regulatory and platform changes such as the DMA gatekeeper change coming in March 2024 and potentially enabling other stores in Europe. Furthermore, the potential aftermath of the Epic-Google lawsuit might lead to the acceptance of new payment methods within the Android ecosystem (and Apple?) or the deprecation of the GAID, concluding the advertising shift initiated by IDFA. While the outcomes of these changes remain uncertain, they could present new opportunities for those with a keen understanding of the evolving landscape, especially in terms of distributing content through alternative sources, utilising creative ways to market games and monetising leveraging different billing systems.
I am particularly interested in seeing how mobile game developers continue to expand to other platforms, from the announcement of Supercell X to the recently launched Fortnite creators ecosystem, where we already see developers raising funds.
Jen Donahoe, Jade Inferno and Beta Hat consultant
The next Hoyoverse game will also crush it, Zenless Zone Zero, although it might be one of the worst names I’ve seen in mobile. Long names and small screens don’t fit.
Sadly, I’m not sure that Warcraft Rumble is going to make it. Installs have fallen off dramatically according to data.ai, as has retention. I had a rough onboarding, so I can see why players aren’t sticking around.
Candy Crush 3D will dominate and lead this new 3D matching sub-genre giving King another billion dollar franchise extension.
Kirill Gurskiy, GEM Capital Managing Director
Mobile gaming currently faces many challenges: privacy-related monetisation and user acquisition issues due to regulatory policies of platforms, market saturation, overall macroeconomic difficulties and uncertainty, or the most recent démarche of Unity.
In this perfect storm, there’s a lot to be learned from Monopoly Go, which, against all odds, has become the industry’s torchbearer. We believe that in 2024, we will see more strong IP and franchises going mobile. A lot of IP-based mobile games make it to the top 20 highest grossing titles, especially in Asia.
Also, such games attract a lot of high spenders. For a strong IP, there’s no point in being boxed in just board games, movies, or PC and console. It’s up to the players to decide when and where they want to enjoy their favourite worlds – at home with their families, during a break from work, or on the subway. For mobile game developers, it’s a chance to overcome the IDFA issue!
Wilhelm Voutilainen, GameRefinery senior chief analyst (US)
I predict more cross-platform and cross-progression titles between mobile and PC/consoles, with a bunch of big games releasing (like CoD Warzone) with cross-progression battle pass, plus high production value RPGs like Wuthering Waves and Zenless Zone Zero. This also links to the trend of bypassing app store fees, continuing with more and more games implementing external web stores.
New ways to monetise events are becoming more common, for example, event premium reward tracks, promoted characters and items that boost your event progression if you have them, and premium event content like we have seen now with Free Fire, State of Survival, and Last Fortress.
Event production values will increase as developers want to make events as engaging as possible. We will see more non-traditional events, such as minigames or other unique mechanics between the core gameplay and the rewards, such as renovation and makeovers.
Brett Nowak, Liquid & Grit founder
I predict significant shifts in platform dynamics: the relationship between mobile gaming and its platforms is poised for substantial changes. I think we’ll also see the emergence of new user acquisition avenues: platforms like TikTok will become key channels for user acquisition.
I also foresee enhanced direct user engagement: as developers move more players to their own web stores, they’ll cultivate closer, more meaningful relationships with their users, unlocking new possibilities.
Revenue model diversification will also be a trend. Game developers are likely to diversify their income streams, focusing more on alternative revenue channels beyond in-app purchases.
Jordan Phang, Naavik consulting partner
This will be the year you subscribe to Netflix for the games. While Netflix’s 2024 slate is interesting, there’s nothing there that will be the catalyst for that change.
However, there’s definitely more than meets the eye, as the 2022 version of Netflix’s upcoming games announcement completely omitted the three Grand Theft Auto games, Dead Cells, Football Manager, Spirit Farer, and more. The release of those games and more means that the value proposition for just-games access is getting much more attractive.
However, what will really turn things around is a hit game. Using my dollar store crystal ball, I predict a game will drop on us out of nowhere sometime in H2 of 2024. It will be multiplayer, optimized for the Netflix controller, and change the paradigm of Netflix as an entertainment platform.
Kalle Heikkinen, GameRefinery chief analyst (China)
Companies I expect to make moves in 2024 on mobile include Netflix, Sony, who will respond to the ABK deal, and Nintendo, who intend to redefine mobile again.
The role of AI in game development will become bigger, and we will see even faster copying of features or art styles of game mechanics.
Alexandra Takei, Naavik podcast host and Ruckus Games director
A predominantly mobile gaming company – whether that be Scopely or Supercell or one of the Chinese mega giants like Mihoyo, Hypergryph or Lilith – is going to release a console and PC title that will do really well. I’ve got my eyes on Arknights Endfield, for example, though no release date has been announced.
