What do mobilegamer.biz readers think 2024 will bring?
Here, we asked some of the best-known developers and publishers in the mobile games business to give us their predictions.
They explore consolidation, risk-taking, going crossplatform, user acquisition, the rise of alternative app stores and more. For more 2024 predictions, see yesterday’s thoughts from mobile’s best-known investors, analysts and consultants.
Paula Ingvar, VP of Candy Crush Soda at King
Mobile games will need to move beyond the core gameplay to keep players engaged. Mobile gaming revenue is projected to increase by 4% year-over-year in 2024. It is going to be an exciting year, as the industry is maturing and becoming even more competitive. To maintain success, developers will need to work hard to find new ways to attract audiences and keep existing players engaged.
We’ve seen a trend towards players seeking more social experiences this year. This will continue to drive a shift in developers offering more experiences that go beyond the core game play. From team challenges to real life tournaments and even partnerships that have a cultural relevance, developers will need to do more to stand out and nurture their relationship with players.
AI will drive adaptability in games, with personalisation becoming the norm. The impact of AI in our industry will be incredible. I expect to see this technology driving more choices in games, as it allows developers to dynamically adapt gameplay and create more immersive and tailored experiences for players – from level tweaking to creating new storyline choices. At King, we’re constantly looking for ways to utilise this technology to surprise and delight our players and I’m excited to see where this technology takes us next in 2024.
Diverse teams will also be the most creative and innovative. The fight for the best talent will continue across the wider tech and games industry next year, but those who put diversity, equity and inclusion front and centre of their hiring strategy will see the biggest returns. Diverse teams that also manage to be equitable and inclusive reach the farthest together. They spark a range of perspectives, fostering creative problem-solving and innovative game design. Equally important, they are also more likely to create features, characters and storylines that reflect the broad spectrum of players.
Chris Petrovic, FunPlus chief business officer
The walls between and among platforms will continue to crumble as more mobile-first game companies will move to PC/web as a way to expand their total addressable market and also to de-risk the ongoing hurdles being put in the road by Apple and Google.
More live service games will find their way onto the top of the PC gaming charts, and the console platforms pay more attention to cross-platform games.
It will be interesting to see how Microsoft’s most recently-revealed mobile ambitions will play out vis-a-vis the approach that the gatekeepers of the mobile ecosystem (Apple and Google) will take towards these ambitions. I feel like we saw this play out to a certain extent in the past with Facebook and Apple so let’s see how it goes this time around!
Victoria Trofimova, Nordcurrent CEO
Despite growing restrictions on privacy in major platforms, traditional user acquisition channels can still deliver expected ROAS levels. But we must prepare for change – the importance of organic installs and, therefore, the brand power of games will become crucial to survive and thrive in the mobile games market.
Simon Hade, Space Ape CxO/cofounder
There are a handful of extremely talented teams I know working away pre-launch so I’m optimistic there will be a surprise breakout or two.
But overall I’m expecting things to continue to be pretty bleak for teams inside big publishers who will continue to feel margin pressure as well as massive headwinds for anyone trying to break out into a new category, resulting in even further consolidation around the big brands in the big genres. This will continue a trend in favour of studios who are already on the board, profitable and have some special advantage like genre expertise, IP or audience.
Elena Grigorian, My Games CEO
I anticipate the gaming market exceeding $200 billion, experiencing a 5% year-on-year growth. Established top games will maintain their dominance, presenting challenges for newcomers aiming to gain recognition and build an audience.
This trend is likely to contribute to an increased cost of market entry, covering both development and promotional aspects, fostering the continued consolidation of market players.
Additionally, we may witness the emergence of alternative mobile stores and payment methods. Cross-platform solutions are anticipated to become the standard in the industry.
Mika Tammenkoski, Metacore CEO
Most of the growth in mobile last year has come from only a few genres, including coin looters, puzzle and naturally merge games. Many genres have continued to decline this year, making the contrast even more stark.
The mobile games market is still immature and I’m afraid that this contrast between genres will continue to grow next year – but my hope is that we’ll begin to see some signs of the market maturing, such more games with unique product positioning or marketing strategy.
Laura Taranto, Big Fish senior product director and head of new games
We mostly talk about mobile market predictions from the perspective of spend, using it as proxy of both current player interest and future player sentiment, rightfully so. Mobile gaming revenue is projected to increase by 4% year-over-year to $111.4 billion in 2024, according to Data.ai.
My predictions, to complement the data, will encompass more of what I think players want combined with what risks big developers are comfortable taking on. I think 2024 will be a year where fortune favours the bold. Players, even and especially casual puzzle players, despite having their repertoire of games, will still make room in their slate for a game that feels fresh.
However, we still see developers fearful of failure creating more of the same games, and not delivering on what players want to do next. Until there is more creative risk-taking, most new casual puzzle games will fail (from the business perspective). The classic mash-up formula will not work as well as it did five years ago.
Those that lean into innovating in the engines themselves and/or trying out experiences that feel brand new will succeed, if and only if studios and companies understand the time investment that is required.
Game cycles will take a bit longer, cost a bit more, but then have a chance of making an impact. Will developers do it? Some definitely not, but a few will – likely smaller, hungrier studios that thrive in high-pressure, nothing-to-lose, winner-takes-all mindsets.
The renaissance of merge is a great example of this with Merge Dragons and Merge Mansion – they succeeded because they felt new at the time; Tile Match represents a more modest version of this presently. My prediction to find success in 2024 is to embark into new territories and take big swings.
Ian Fielding, Super Evil Megacorp studio head
If I had to pick one prediction for 2024 it is that you are going to see more studios, especially in the midcore and core space, double down on innovation and uniqueness of their games and using custom tech to power those experiences, versus a reliance on derivative games and optimisation with off-the-shelf solves.
As the mobile market becomes increasingly saturated, and discoverability becomes harder, games are going to need to provide players fresh new experiences and developers are going to need to put in the time, energy, and take calculated risks in order to stand out as worthy of players’ time.
I think you see this in the triple-A space with the innovation and custom tech of games like Baldur’s Gate 3, or the close runner up The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. In mobile I think you’ll see this trend as well with the need to innovate to really stand out.
Games like Monster Hunter Now to me are good examples of taking great IP, marrying creative and tech together, and then providing players a new fresh experience for mobile with the IP.
This is a big reason why at SEMC we have been investing in our own Evil engine for well over a decade now, so when our creatives, designers, and dev teams want to dream up some truly unique or novel experience, we have the ability to leverage or modify our existing tech, or build new tech given we have a super talented in-house engine team to help pioneer new experiences for players.
Anette Staloy, Dirtybit chief marketing officer
Heading into 2024, the Digital Markets Act (DMA) will have a significant impact on the games industry, particularly affecting the big tech companies that the European Commission has identified as gatekeepers, including Apple and Google.
The DMA will likely lead to substantial changes in app store policies, with the pressure to align with the regulations already in March 2024 to avoid fines. As the industry becomes more familiar with the implications of the DMA, the debate over platform fees is likely to intensify.
Arseny Lebedev, Original Games cofounder
Economically, politically, mentally I believe 2024 will mirror 2023. And the word ‘alternative’ will dominate: alternative app stores, alternative payments, alternative metaverse.
We will see a stronger return of M&A and consolidation but not at 2020 levels. Finally, 2023 and 2024’s top 10 grossing mobile games will be the same.
