What do mobilegamer.biz readers think 2024 will bring?
Here, more well-known folks drawn from across mobile game publishing, development and marketing offer their forecasts for 2024. They touch upon UA trends, transmedia, web stores, AI, M&A, crypto, UGC and more.
Charmie Kim, Space Ape game lead
I predict that Whiteout Survival continues to climb into the top five US grossing and is there to stay for years. And ‘Pull the Pin’ will finally be retired and another puzzle minigame will takeover as the UA minigame of choice.
Alex Amancio, FunPlus world-building and IP strategy SVP
I think the entertainment industry at large is at the crossroads of very interesting times. We’ll soon see games that aren’t just games anymore but portals into interconnected worlds. Think of a mobile game as an entry point into a broader universe, like a TV series, comic book or podcast.
Cloud gaming will start becoming the big deal we thought it’d be a few years back. This will make high-end games accessible on mobile – like having a triple-A console in your pocket.
Another potential revolution is games increasingly evolving into full-fledged social platforms, where players aren’t just players, they’re the audience, they’re creators, collaborators and part of a living community.
But what really excites me is the way in which AI will revolutionise storytelling in games and open the door to personalised, highly interactive experiences. Imagine games that adapt and change based on your decisions…
Lastly, we’ve been talking about AR being the next big thing for some time now, and so far it hasn’t really panned out – I’m betting this might be it… in fact, I think we’ll soon see the emergence of new gaming genres that further blur the lines between the digital and the physical.
Maria Kochmola, The Games Fund cofounder and MD
In 2024, the mobile gaming industry faces persistent challenges with similar market dynamics to 2023, but even more intense.
This difficult landscape is dominated by major players, yet big wins are still possible. As the saying goes, pressure creates diamonds, and we’re bound to see more record-breaking success stories from underdogs with innovative guerilla marketing.
We anticipate more independent developers to emerge, and more investment to pour into gaming startups. Capital is available, but getting it takes more time and effort.
Miika Luotio, Appcharge bizdev VP
In regards to the recently announced illegal app store monopoly of Google, I think we will get more actionable details in early 2024. Pure speculation on a personal level but this has an opportunity to open up avenues like an option directly presented in a mobile game to being able to link players directly to a web store. This would be great for all small and large games businesses out there. But the details are not out yet so it’s too early to expand on this with certainty and what the timeline of any changes could be.
All top 50 mobile publishers by IAP revenue will plan and/or execute some form of a direct-to-consumer strategy. Mobile game web stores will see more innovation in gamified features. We’ll also see mechanics like endless and rolling offers, accumulation bars and other advanced monetisation features.
In 2023, I’ve seen an average of 30% extra incremental revenue from web stores for mobile games. So, with the help of segmentation and personalisation, the publishers who started early in the direct-to-consumer space will see even more significant returns from the web stores.
Publishers will also start to utilize AI more in personalisation as part of their direct-to-consumer strategy.
Ruby Spiers-Unwin, Pocket Tactics editor
As much as I love Hoyoverse, I think it would be really exciting to see a new developer step up and create a mobile game on par with, or exceeding the quality of Genshin Impact and Honkai: Star Rail. The more of a monopoly Hoyo holds over the mobile RPG market, the harder it is for a new game to capture the hearts of players, and I’d love to see a new, unique game take the throne and become my 2024 game of the year.
Will Luton, Village Studios cofounder
I’m generally an optimist. But… it’s hard to be optimistic about mobile gaming right now. There is a perfect storm:
- Slowing growth: The rate of new players is vastly slowing and the data looks like in around three years total player numbers will plateau. Standing still is no longer growth.
- Non-game competition: In addition, games are increasingly in competition for attention not with each other, but other apps. Social media, especially TikTok, is increasingly compelling, accessible and passive in ways that mobile games aren’t. They give so much while asking so little. You don’t have to work for that dopamine hit.
- UA is broken: IDFA deprecation has made accurately getting your game in front of the right players more expensive and vague, effectively killing hypercasual and shutting out indie and other small studios.
- Crypto death: Crypto hasn’t panned out to be the change catalyst many of us hoped for, with users rightly wary due to wild price fluctuations, scams, ponzinomics and generally rampant negative sentiment.
- Subscription gatekeepers: Likely the best content right now is getting sucked in to Apple Arcade, allowing Apple to tighten its grip over the store and becoming distribution gatekeepers.
And all of this is on top of a terrible global economy. What I see talking to mobile developers is a lot of worry that the party is over. And it is.
So my prediction is that 2024 will be at best a stagnant year, but more like a rough year for mobile with no new investment, little M&A, conservative product decisions, doubling down on legacy titles with existing user bases and everyone doing their best to stay alive.
However, the only constant is change. The market is still massive – both in terms of players and revenue – so the carrot is there and there are a lot of smart people chasing after it.
At some point there will be a black swan event that will shake everything up. I don’t know if that’s a marketing or product innovation. It could be AI content or some business model innovation or a crypto revival or new distribution solution. Will it happen in 2024? I would love to hope so, but I can’t.
Clare Wimalasundera, Raptor PR associate director
While the general narrative around mobile gaming is that the trend has stagnated post-pandemic, we work with several clients who are continuously launching new products and games that are super successful in the space, and are set to grow further in 2024.
Two key areas we are excited about for the year ahead are the continued growth of AI in mobile games development and the DMA EU regulation which comes into play in March. Both will support innovation across the industry, enable even better experiences for gamers and importantly, drive retention for developers.
The speed of advancement in AI is opening up the space for fun and quirky game ideas for indie devs that can now power through development cycles at a much lower cost. We’ll also see AI being used to drive personalisation in mobile games, particularly around skill level through user segmentation.
The EU Digital Markets Act will provide opportunities for mobile game developers as they will now be able to escape the 30% app store fee that Apple and Google currently charge. One area that will be particularly interesting to watch is a potential pick-up in in-app purchases. The reduced cost will open up new models and formats for game developers to experiment with, which could make in-app purchases more appealing to gamers. For example, games that offer smaller purchases through digital goods like Bitcoin could finally come into their own, providing a more frictionless experience.
Chris Heatherly, Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow CEO
Mobile has gotten boring and stale. Big games chug along but there’s not a lot that’s new – it’s hard to deconstruct your way to glory anymore.
UA will get even harder as Apple and Google tighten the screws on privacy even more. Roblox will quietly keep gobbling up play time, and if Fortnite returns to mobile in a big way, there will be a giant sucking sound in its direction.
The whole space is ripe for disruption and the breakouts will be from those who take risks again and colour outside the lines – web stores, sideloading, progressive web apps, UGC and yeah, web3. Limited edition virtual goods, secondary markets, and tokens will all start to show up in games whether they use blockchain or not. But there’s a learning curve – and those who have been too busy talking shit to pay attention will be at a real disadvantage.
Anastasiia Sereda, Zibra AI head of marketing
I think there will be a return to growth – it’s predicted about 4% – that shows mobile’s ability to adapt to challenging circumstances.
Growth won’t be uniform and I think we’ll see a particular mix of genres gaining popularity and thus driving revenue, particularly RPGs, match-3 and party games.
This greater diversity of experiences will be powered by changes on the tech front: smoother and more responsive gameplay on more powerful devices – but also on less powerful devices too thanks to 5G cloud gaming, and more immersive experiences with AR and VR.
Luca Fiaschi, Mistplay chief data, AI and monetisation officer
In 2024, I predict that we’ll see the explosion of generative AI from 2023 continue to permeate gaming, specifically across developer productivity, democratisation of game development, and personalisation. We’ll see continued automation of code and visual assets, significantly increasing game quality and storylines.
We’ll also see platforms that utilize generative AI broadening the range of creators in the field, welcoming individuals from various backgrounds and skill levels, resulting in a richer array of games. Lastly, generative AI will enable new levels of personalization for players, including making NPCs more intuitive and responsive, allowing for more lifelike dialogues within games.
Ben Cousens, CSO, ZBD
I think next year will be the year of game stores and third-party payments in the EU following the Digital Markets Act. It will certainly be interesting to see if anyone dares sideloading on iOS!
I can’t see the UA market being any less punishing going forward, though I’d expect rewarded advertisement to continue growing its share of the ad market.
Christian Lovstedt, Midjiwan general manager
I’m expecting esports to have a bigger impact on mobile. Despite the increase in online mobile gaming, cross-play between platforms, and rapid improvements in hardware and networking, competitive gaming on mobile lags well behind PC and console. While progress can be seen in markets such as India with games like Battlegrounds Mobile, the fact that the majority of PC gamers worldwide are mobile gamers too means we should see advancements everywhere next year.
