This editorial first appeared in the mobilegamer.biz newsletter on Friday, and has been tweaked slightly for publication here. Subscribe to the newsletter below, if you haven’t already.
When asked what might happen to the mobile games business in 2024 last week, many of you were pretty uncompromising: there will be more layoffs, marketing will get tougher and publishers will take fewer risks to weather the coming storm, you said.
Others were more more optimistic, citing changes around the app stores as a reason to be cheerful. And fortune will favour the brave, you said: the ones taking risks will see the biggest breakthroughs in 2024, not the ones optimising what they have. (You can read all four ‘mobile in 2024’ prediction articles through these links right here.)
But for me, there’s another big thing looming over mobile in 2024: Microsoft, and a potential Xbox app store.
Reuters, for one, seems convinced that this is the year the software giant finally makes a meaningful move into mobile; and now that Microsoft owns Activision, Blizzard and – most importantly – King, the stage is set for something big to happen.
Microsoft has clearly been looking at this stuff for years, and has made bold public statements about taking on Apple and Google with a store of its own – though internally it has voiced concerns about how tough it’ll be to break the duopoly.
Microsoft is perhaps the only other big tech company with the know-how, cash and incentive to do it. Epic Games and Valve could also enter the fray, but again, they do not have the same armoury that Microsoft has right now, especially now it owns King.
If Microsoft’s big mobile move does happen this year, it won’t be one ‘big bang’ moment that shakes up the market overnight, that’s for sure. Those at Microsoft worried about taking on the status quo are right – it’s going to take a lot of time and even more money to make a dent in Apple and Google’s current market share.
A shifting regulatory landscape will help. Here in Europe, the Digital Markets Act will – ideally – make it a little easier for alternative stores and payment methods to gain traction. In the US, Google has already lost its court case with Epic, so there will likely be movement there. And there are rumours of a US antitrust investigation into Apple’s App Store, too.
Ongoing legislation and litigation is welcome, but let’s be honest: it is always very slow, and is never really as transformative as it could be. Change only truly happens when big companies make big bets on something new. Enter Microsoft, and its Xbox app store.
Remember: there’s really nothing stopping Microsoft launching its own games store on Android right now. And selling other game-makers on a new app store, assuming the pitch includes better discoverability and a platform fee much lower than 30%, should be among the least of the challenges.
Even without third parties, Microsoft already runs multiple digital storefronts already, and it now has a ton of mobile games in its portfolio, too.
The hardest task will be selling a new store to consumers. No matter what legislation is put in place to open up the market, or how hard Microsoft tries, it will always be quickest and easiest to download apps and games from Apple or Google. Steam and the Epic Games Store will have the same problem, should they want to launch proper mobile stores too.
The route to greater mobile app store competition remains blurry, like so many other things ahead in 2024. Nonetheless, we’re closer than ever to meaningful change in the way games are distributed and sold on phones and tablets. Competition can only be a good thing.
With the launch of Xbox in 2001, Microsoft bulldozed its way into the console business; let’s hope this is the year it does the same for mobile games.
